Chapter 1 Introduction

1.1 Scope and purpose of this publication

Chapter 2 Motivation and international context of ocean forecasting

2.1 Introduction

2.2 International cooperation for a sustainable ocean

2.3 International cooperation to build our “common”

2.4 International cooperation to foster openness and inclusiveness

2.5 International frameworks to support OOFS development

2.6 An international community of Operational Ocean Forecasting Systems ready for the next steps

Chapter 3 Definition of ocean forecasting systems: temporal and spatial scales solved by marine modeling systems

3.1 Operational oceanography and ocean forecasting services: definition and main purpose

3.2 Essential ocean variables covered by marine monitoring and forecasting systems

3.3 The spatial scales: downscaling for higher resolutions

3.3.1 Global monitoring and forecasting systems

3.3.2 Regional monitoring and forecasting systems

3.3.3 Coastal monitoring and forecasting systems

3.4 The temporal scales: different applications of numerical modeling to solve ocean problems

Chapter 4 Architecture of ocean monitoring and forecasting systems

4.1 Modelling systems architecture

4.1.1 Step 1 processes

4.1.2 Step 2 processes

4.1.3 Step 3 processes

4.2 Inputs required

4.2.1 Obtaining and preparing ocean data

4.2.2 Description of existing in-situ observational oceanographic data

4.2.3 Description of satellite observational oceanographic data

4.2.4 Bathymetry

4.2.5 Atmospheric forcing

4.2.6 Land forcing

4.2.7 OOFS fields as input for downscaling

4.2.8 Climatology from observations

4.3 Data Assimilation

4.4 Numerical Ocean models

4.4.1 Definition and types of models

4.4.2 Coupled models

4.5 Validation and Verification

4.5.1 Basis statistical tools for time series validation

4.5.2 Ocean forecasting standard metrics for validation and intercomparison

4.5.3 Qualification, validation and verification processes in support of operational ocean models’ production

4.6 Output preparation

4.6.1 Introduction

4.6.2 Products and datasets

4.6.3 Variables

4.6.4 Spatial resolution

4.6.5 Time resolution

4.6.6 Data format

4.6.7 Display and analysis tools

4.6.8 Output dissemination

4.7 User management and outreach

Chapter 5 Circulation modelling

5.1 General introduction to circulation models

5.1.1 Objective, applications and beneficiaries

5.1.2 Circulation Physics

5.2 Circulation forecast and multi-year systems

5.2.1 Ocean-Earth system as basis for OOFS

5.2.2 Architecture singularities

5.3 Input data

5.4 Modelling component: general circulation models

5.4.1 Mathematical model

5.4.2 Basic discretization techniques

5.4.3 List of Ocean General Circulation Models

5.4.4 Downscaling large-scale solutions to regional/coastal circulation models

5.5 Data assimilation systems

5.5.1 Basic concepts

5.5.2 Sequential methods

5.5.3 Variational methods

5.5.4 Modelling errors

5.5.5 Overview of current data assimilation systems in operational forecasting

5.6 Ensemble modelling

5.6.1 Basic concepts

5.6.2 Ocean model uncertainties

5.6.3 Towards ocean EPS

5.7 Validation strategies

5.8 Outputs

5.8.1 Variables/EOV

5.9 Inventories

5.9.1 Inventory of operational global to regional to coastal to local forecasting systems

5.9.2 Inventory of multi-year systems

Chapter 6 Sea Ice modelling

6.1 General introduction to sea ice models

6.1.1 Objective, applications and beneficiaries

6.1.2 Fundamental theoretical background

6.2 Sea Ice forecast and multi-year systems

6.2.1 Architecture singularities

6.2.2 Input data: available sources and data handling

6.2.3 Modelling component

6.2.4 Ensemble Modelling

6.2.5 Data Assimilation systems

6.2.6 Validation strategies

6.2.7 Outputs

6.2.8 Examples of operational sea ice forecasting systems

Chapter 7 Storm surge modelling

7.1 General introduction to storm surge

7.1.1 Overview of storm surge disaster

7.1.2 Basic description of storm surge phenomena

7.1.3 Physics of storm surge

7.2 Storm surge modelling

7.2.1 Architecture components and singularities

7.2.2 Input data: available sources and data handling

7.2.3 Modelling component

7.2.4 Data assimilation systems

7.2.5 Ensemble modelling

7.2.6 Validation strategies

7.2.7 Outputs

7.2.8 Existing operational storm surge forecasting systems

Chapter 8 Wave modelling

8.1 General introduction to wave characterization

8.1.1 Objective, applications, and beneficiaries

8.1.2 General characteristic of waves

8.1.3 Deep water wind-generated wave theory

8.1.4 Nearshore transformation of waves

8.2 Wave forecast and multi-year systems

8.2.1 Architecture singularities

8.3 Input data, available sources, data handling, and model pre-processing

8.3.1 Bathymetry and geometry

8.3.2 Forcing fields

8.3.3 Observations

8.3.4 Pre-processing and definition of the numerical problem

8.3.5 Boundary and initial conditions

8.4 Modelling component: general wave generation and propagation models

8.4.1 Types of models

8.4.2 Discretization methods

8.5 Data assimilation systems

8.6 Ensemble modelling

8.7 Validation and calibration strategies

8.8 Outputs and post processing

8.8.1 Post-processing of the wave model results for the final delivery

8.8.2 Common output variables

8.9 Inventories

8.9.1 Inventory of Near-real time wave forecasting systems

8.9.2 Inventory of Multi-year wave systems (reanalysis, hindcast)

Chapter 9 Biogeochemical modelling

9.1 General introduction to Biogeochemical models

9.1.1 Objective, applications and beneficiaries

9.1.2 Fundamental theoretical background

9.2 Biogeochemical forecast and multi-year systems

9.2.1 Architecture singularities

9.2.2 Input data: available sources and data handling

9.2.3 Modelling component

9.2.4 Ensemble modelling

9.2.5 Data assimilation systems

9.2.6 Validation strategies

9.2.7 Output

9.2.8 Higher trophic levels modelling

9.2.9 Inventories

Chapter 10 Coupled Prediction: Integrating Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean forecasting

10.1 Introduction to coupled prediction

10.2 Coupling processes

10.2.1 Waves and their role in air-sea exchange

10.2.2 Land/sea exchanges

10.2.3 Air-sea exchanges across sea ice

10.2.4 The importance of air-sea exchanges during storms and other extreme events

10.3 Benefits expected from coupling

10.4 Ocean Information Services based on Coupled Frameworks

10.4.1 Establishing service needs

10.4.2 Identifying the required information

Chapter 11 Downstream applications:From data to products

11.1 The need of downstream products

11.1.1 Blue Economy

11.1.2 Applications and services

11.2 Examples of advanced downstream systems

11.2.1 Sea Situational Awareness (web pages and other dissemination mechanisms)

11.2.2 Oil spill forecasting

11.2.3 Ports

11.2.4 Voyage planning

11.2.5 Fisheries and aquaculture

Chapter 12 Challenges and future perspectives in ocean prediction

12.1 Introduction

12.2 Observing system evolution with ocean prediction engagement

12.2.1 Challenges for the current ocean observing systems

12.2.2 Observing System Evaluation

12.2.3 Argo evolution plans

12.2.4 Next phase for satellite missions

12.3 Numerical models planned evolutions, including adaptation to new HPC systems

12.4 Future evolutions in ocean data assimilation for operational ocean forecasting

12.5 Future of ensemble prediction systems

12.6 Opportunities of artificial intelligence for ocean forecasting systems

12.6.1 Expected contributions of machine learning to ocean forecasting pipelines

12.6.2 Designing fully trainable ocean forecasting systems core engines

12.6.3 Towards user-centric, ocean digital twins leveraging lightweight emulators

12.7 Seamless prediction

12.7.1 Optimal use of modelling workforce and model consolidation

12.7.2 Development of seamless UOM for multiple temporal scales

12.7.3 Geographic configurations and seamless UOM in space and in a marine system of systems

12.7.4 Evolution in short-, mid- and long-term perspectives

12.8 Operational forecasting and scenarios in a digital ocean

12.8.1 Construction of an open DTO service platform

12.8.2 Underlying architecture

12.9 Quality information communication improvements

12.9.1 New observations for improved quality assessment

12.9.2 Expected development of quality assessment techniques

12.9.3 Quality assessment for intermediate and end users

12.10 Expected future evolution of Copernicus Marine Service products and services

12.11 The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development

12.11.1 The Decade Collaborative Centre for Ocean Prediction

12.11.2 CoastPredict Program

12.11.3 ForeSea Program