Chapter 8

Wave modelling


CHAPTER
COORDINATORS

Lotfi Aouf and Gabriel Diaz-Hernandez
CHAPTER
AUTHORS

Alexander Babanin, Jean Bidlot, Joanna Staneva, and Andy Saulter

8.2 Wave forecast and multi-year systems

Wave forecasting consists in describing the evolution of waves under the action of wind on the ocean surface and their propagation following interactions with currents, ice, and obstacles. Wave models numerically solve the variation of the wave spectrum from the energy balance equation taking into account the energy gain and loss terms. The evolution of wave models has followed improvements in the key processes of wind-wave growth, swell dissipation, and nonlinear wave interactions. Experimental works (Mitsuyasu, 1970; Hasselmann et al., 1973) have highlighted the importance of nonlinear wave interactions and wind-wave growth. This has led to the improvement of wave models with, for example, a better simulation of the overshoot phenomenon which describes the transition of wave energy from high to low frequencies. Wave models must consider the computation time to ensure an operational forecast in near-real time conditions. So far, non-linear wave interactions have been simulated in the models in an approximate way, which sometimes generate errors.

Wave prediction is primarily a short-term process to ensure the safety of people, property, and maintenance of operational activities that require an accurate description of the sea state. In addition, wave forecasting is necessary for longterm analysis of the wave climate, to learn lessons from extreme wave events, and to upgrade and improve operational wave forecasting systems. These last actions are part of wave reanalysis or so-called multi-year products, of which the most known by users are ERA5, WAVERYS - Global Ocean Waves Reanalysis - and CFSR.

8.2.1 Architecture singularities

8.2.1.1 Levels of complexity from deep to shallow water

Every OOFS, designed to provide ocean wave-related products for both historical (multi-year) and future predictions, would require a modular architecture and a common approach methodology (see Chapter 4).

The main components of a forecasting system and of its architecture (Figure 4.1) can be considered valid for almost any OOFS architecture as they are based on three general steps:

a. Forcing and observations for data assimilation;
b. Numerical model:
c. Post-processing tools and final product information (including validation, monitoring, and dissemination).

These steps should be followed when wave OOFS is used for deep water. However, when the main process to be assessed within the OOFS are ocean waves in the coastal zone, the second step could be a major problem if not well conceptualised. The reason is that the type of numerical models to be used would not be able to obtain the results efficiently or fast enough, especially for those forecast systems that need a robust and recurrent architecture for a 24/7 output. In addition, numerical wave propagation in the coastal zone could turn rapidly into a high-CPU requirement problem, especially when singular wave physics should be solved, such as wave reflection, wave current interaction, wave overtopping over structures, etc.

Usually, wave OOFS at deep water only provides simple prediction of basic variables (called here level 1). In coastal zones, downscaling approaches were not able to obtain more complex solutions involving derived variables (called level 2 and 3), because they could not be based on direct/ trivial solutions but needed complex numerical calculations, and the use of advanced tools with high requirement of CPU time. A general list of the variables to be considered for each level (from 1 to 3) of sophistication and complexity within a wave OOFS, is shown in Figure 8.17.

8.17. Variables included in ocean wave OOFS grouped in levels from 1 to 3 depending on their complexity and codependency

The variables included will define the main architecture of the OOFS in which, through a method, effects, physical behaviour, and final prediction are linked, but allowing the possible future exchange/substitution of variables and methods in a simple and direct way.

The general architecture of modern ocean wave OOFS needs to meet certain characteristics of quality, interoperability, operation, and reliability. These characteristics should prevent anomalies that can lead to serious operational drawback such as:

  • Unrealistic results without any protocol of quality control, with solutions only found with a dynamic approach (real-time sea-state by sea-state numerical runs, as explained by Rusu et al., 2008);
  • Limited tools due to daily availability of CPU time;
  • No learning/(feedback);
  • Limited in space, geometrically inert (non-evolutionary);
  • Unknown uncertainties (no error control/measure);
  • No communication between modules, only based on a deterministic nature.

To overcome these possible shortcomings, it is then necessary to identify some architectural specificities, which are described below.

a. Efficiency and speed of predictions. The need of creating a sufficiently agile and efficient system that can provide results within the time window pre-established by the future use. Generally, this window is reduced to the very competitive time of around 1 hour, necessary to trigger all processes, obtain results, and publish them. Therefore, the general assembly method, based on a hybrid architecture combining clustering methods, should be invoked, especially for the high-CPU modelling for shallow waters.

b. Robustness (24/7). The workflow must be light and computationally ordered, to guarantee an adequate triggering of the processes and obtaining of results.

c. Modular design. This refers to the ability of the system to interchange methods and tools directly, without major modifications to the backbone architecture of the system (plug & play). This way of working requires an adequate standardisation of the intercommunication formats between modules (input and output, I/O), so that the connection of each part is compatible with the coding of the general system.

d. Reliable and realistic results. This is one of the most important characteristics for a wave OOFS as it refers to the reliability of the tool, the credibility of the general method adopted, and the satisfaction of the end user. For this purpose, there should be proposed methods for validating the tool and its results with information measured in-situ. A common practice in the development of this method is to prepare a document with instructions on how to carry out field campaigns, indicating locations, variables to be measured and type of equipment to be used, recommended schedules, suggested post-processing algorithms, and final validation products. It is important to note that the measurements will reflect the logical evolution/growth of the study area in the operational system (modification of bathymetries, evolutionary shelter elements, etc.).

e. Ad-hoc mathematical and numerical tools. This is closely related to the idea of a modular system mentioned above, and it is based on the precise integration of those tools aiming at the solution of physical processes of special interest. It is achieved through the appropriate use and adaptation of wave propagation tools (e.g. CFD models, Non-Linear Shallow Water Equations, Boussinesq-type equations, Mild Slope equations, third-generation wave generation and propagation models, etc.).

f. Self-diagnosis of results. This feature is based on the use of statistical methods that allow a detailed diagnosis of the results provided by the system on a daily basis, to identify and quantify the errors and uncertainties that are triggered throughout the execution of the system. This concept, closely linked to the "cascade of uncertainty" theory (Wilby and Dessai, 2010), makes it possible to optimise each method and reduce errors and uncertainties.

g. Nowcast integration. This refers to the capacity of the wave OOFS to take advantage of in-situ measurements provided continuously and in parallel with the use of the system during its operational phase. Algorithms should be developed for accessing, reading, post-processing, and assimilating the information measured to compare it with the predictions provided by the system, with the final capacity to generate readjustments of certain control parameters and, thus, of the predictions. This self-learning capacity of the system guarantees that, in a few months, the system will reach a mature operational level.

h. Tailor-made results. This is the OOFS’s capacity to correctly prepare the formats in which the results are presented (summary tables, email bulletins, and web pages) for the appropriate decision-making process, adapting the formats to the user needs and showing the general uncertainties in the predictions.

The architecture specificities proposed here are able to provide: i) a multi-year wave (hindcast) and b) an operational/predictive product.

8.2.1.2 Hybrid and clustering technique

A hybrid approach has been recommended (Groeneweg et al., 2006, Stansby et al., 2006) when the complexity of the physics involved in the wave propagation assessment arises conditioning: i) the numerical model (CPU time) to be used; ii) the spatial resolution of the domains to be taken into account; and iii) the temporal relevance of new variables (such as variables above level 1) to be included in the final system/solution.

This approach allows a fast assessment of variables from level 2 to 3, regardless of the sophistication of the tool that performs it. This happens thanks to the concept of "pre-executed catalogue of cases" or clustering technique (also known as pre-cooked catalogue), which is responsible for assimilating the statistics of all the casuistry of processes involved, from the forcing involved to the final response.

The hybrid method, as described in various articles (Gaslikova and Weisse, 2006; Breivik et al., 2009, Herman et al. 2009), always follows the same steps:

  • Access to the original forcing database (generally at deep water, sea-states, wind, and sea level series);
  • Apply a self-selection algorithm of N pre-selected families of cases to be run, which will cover all the physics of the climate at the outer point (Figure 8.18);
  • Transform level 1 variables to levels 2 and 3 through the execution of the N cases with the use of mainly mathematical/numerical tools;
  • Statistically reconstruct the original database (Kalra et al., 2005; Browne et al., 2007) at the transfer point after having gone through the transformation processes, e.g. from the outer harbour zone to the quay area, making use of an algorithm that statistically interrelates the pre-run catalogue of N cases with the complete statistics of the forcing in the outer zone;
  • Diagnose the data for historical diagnostic use.
Figure 8.18. Wave climate clustering using Max-Diss algorithm (source: University of Cantabria).

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