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Chapter 12

Challenges and future perspectives in ocean prediction

CHAPTER
COORDINATORS
Fraser Davidson
CHAPTER
AUTHORS
Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Alain Arnaud, Stefania Ciliberti, Marie Drevillon, Ronan Fablet, Yosuke Fujii, Isabel Garcia-Hermosa, Stéphanie Guinehut, Emma Heslop, Villy Kourafalou, Julien Le Sommer, Matt Martin, Andrew M. Moore, Nadia Pinardi, Elizabeth Remy, Paul Sandery, Jun She, Marcos G. Sotillo, and Joaquin Tintorè

12.11 The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development

At the beginning of the third millennium, ocean science was largely competent for diagnosing problems. However, its ability to offer solutions of direct relevance to sustainable development requires a massive upgrade.

The world needed a large-scale and adequately resourced campaign to transform ocean science empowering and engaging stakeholders across disciplines, geographies, generations, and genders, and of sufficiently long duration to deliver the lasting change that is required. In 2016, the IOC of UNESCO (🔗13) initiated a concept for this campaign. In December 2017, this work culminated in the proclamation by the 72nd Session of the UNGA of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development 2021-2030 (referred to as ‘the Ocean Decade’). UNGA called on the IOC to prepare an Implementation Plan for the Ocean Decade in consultation with Member States, United Nations partners, and diverse stakeholder groups.

In 2021, the United Nations launched the Ocean Decade (2021- 2030) (🔗14) whose aim is to ‘support efforts to reverse the cycle of decline in ocean health and gather ocean stakeholders worldwide behind a common framework that will ensure ocean science can fully support countries in creating improved conditions for sustainable development of the Ocean’. In this framework, the IOC plays an important role: it coordinates the Decade’s design and preparation, identifies programmatic contributions, and implements the Decade.

The vision of the Ocean Decade is ‘the science we need for the ocean we want’. The mission is ‘to catalyse transformative ocean science solutions for sustainable development, connecting people and our ocean’.

Seven outcomes describe what should be the ‘ocean we want’ at the end of the Ocean Decade:

1. A clean ocean where sources of pollution are identified and reduced or removed.
2. A healthy and resilient ocean where marine ecosystems are understood, protected, restored and managed.
3. A productive ocean supporting sustainable food supply and a sustainable ocean economy.
4. A predicted ocean where society understands and can respond to changing ocean conditions.
5. A safe ocean where life and livelihoods are protected from ocean-related hazards.
6. An accessible ocean with open and equitable access to data, information and technology and innovation.
7. An inspiring and engaging ocean where society understands and values the ocean in relation to human wellbeing and sustainable development.

The decade will be implemented via “Actions”, which are the tangible initiatives that will be carried out across the globe over the next ten years to fulfil the Ocean Decade vision. They will be implemented by a wide range of proponents, including research institutes and universities, governments, UN agencies, intergovernmental organisations, other international and regional organisations, business and industry, philanthropic and corporate foundations, NGOs, educators, community groups or individuals. Actions can be implemented by promoting Activities, Contributions, specific Programs or Projects.

The Ocean Decade will involve a large number of partners and actors around the world, and hence it cannot be rigidly governed. A simple, robust coordination structure will manage day-to-day implementation. The DCU, to be located at the IOC Secretariat, will be the central hub for the coordination of Ocean Decade activities. Governments or partners will host a number of Decade Coordination Offices and DCCs – referred to as decentralised coordination structures – that will be located in different regions around the world. These structures will help to coordinate efforts between national, regional, and global initiatives, share knowledge and tools developed through the Ocean Decade, create links between potential Decade partners, and monitor and report on the impact of the Decade. One DCC will be devoted to Ocean Prediction 🔗15.

The following subsections describe some examples of Actions and Collaborative Centres that will be linked to OOFS

12.11.1 The Decade Collaborative Centre for Ocean Prediction

DCCs serve as the main interface between Decade Actions and the DCU at the IOC-UNESCO Secretariat. MOI has been selected to host the DCC for Ocean Prediction. It will provide:

  • A communication and collaboration hub bringing together Decade programmes with ocean prediction activities, institutes, and organisations outside of the Decade;
  • A global technical and organisational structure to establish a pilot for a Global Ocean Data Processing, Modelling, and Forecasting System, building on the innovations generated by the Decade programmes and other national, regional, and international partners.

The DCC for Ocean Prediction will ensure that the efforts of multiple Decade programmes combine to meet Decade objectives and that innovations are integrated into operational ocean forecasting systems through a harmonised global network with shared information and services.

12.11.2 CoastPredict Program

The University of Bologna (Italy) was selected for another thematic DCC which will focus on coastal resilience in a changing climate. The same University is also leading the CoastPredict Programme that was endorsed as a Decade Programme of Ocean Science in June 2021.

CoastPredict is one of the 3 Programmes co-designed with GOOS, and it has the purpose of revolutionising the global coastal ocean observing and forecasting sector (🔗16). The high-level objectives of CoastPredict are:

1. A predicted global coastal ocean;
2. The upgrade to a fit for purpose oceanographic information infrastructure;
3. Co-design and implementation of an integrated coastal ocean observing and forecasting system adhering to best practices and standards, designed as a global framework, and implemented locally.

The Global Coastal Ocean is a concept central to the transformative science pursued by CoastPredict. CoastPredict will re-define the concept of the Global Coastal Ocean that was firstly described as follows by Robinson and Brink (2006; concept developed in volumes 10 to 14 of “The Sea” series): ‘the coastal ocean – that area, extending inshore from the estuarine mouths to river catchments affected by salt waters and offshore from the surf zone to the continental shelf and slope where waters of continental origins meet open ocean currents.’

According to this concept, all coastal ocean regions are an interface area where atmosphere, land, ice, hydrology, coastal ecosystems, open ocean, and humans interact on a multiplicity of space and time scales that need to be resolved with a proper observing and downscaling methodology, including the consideration of uncertainties.

The legacy of CoastPredict will be new science for the observing systems, and new methods for the development of reliable predictions extending as far as possible into the future to solve problems co-defined with stakeholders. Additionally, it will enhance the capacity to formulate R2O practices, a new set of coastal observing and modelling standards for all. This will go hand-in-hand with the organisation and upgrade of the basic global ocean information infrastructure for open and free access to coastal information using standards and best practices.

CoastPredict will capitalise on three previous major international initiatives:

  1. GOOS Coastal observation panels (i.e. COOP and succeeding PICO). COOP started in 2000 to define a strategy for integrated observing and forecasting in the coastal areas. One of the main outcomes was the recommendation that a global network of observations, data communications, data management, and data analysis/forecasting should be secured providing economies of scale. Another important COOP/PICO outcome was the initial definition of common variables to be monitored and forecasted in the coastal areas. However, PICO’s work did not continue because the international ocean observing network was not adequately organised and technology was not yet ready for data collection on biogeochemistry, biodiversity, and other marine environmental variables. Furthermore, the satellite observing system for coastal areas was still under development (except for coastal ocean colour).
  2. OceanPredict and its COSS-TT. OceanPredict organised the global ocean observation uptake for the development of global and regional forecasting systems. In addition, OceanPredict/COSS-TT defined the international quality control standards for ocean analyses, reanalyses, and forecasts in the coastal ocean and shelf seas. COSS-TT promoted the use of OceanPredict large scale products for seamless integration of ocean to coastal forecasting, defined the state-of-the-art methodology for downscaling, data assimilation, array design in the coastal/shelf areas. COSS-TT focuses on advancing science in support of coastal forecasting and is one of the backbones of CoastPredict.
  3. The JCOMM. From 2000 to 2019, JCOMM has coordinated ocean observing networks, in particular the GLOSS network for tide gauges and the HF radar network. Furthermore, it started to develop coastal services for wave and storm surges by meteorological offices in developing countries. Moreover, it has coordinated the development of marine environmental emergency services. However, such developments led by JCOMM were not fully integrated and connected with the growing oceanographic research communities of OceanPredict and COSS-TT. While the observing systems and the large-scale ocean forecasting systems are now coordinated in GOOS, the coastal downscaling and forecasting research developments are not currently connected to coastal services. All these activities have been partly disconnected and have not produced a global international network bringing together the fragmented scientific communities for advancing the research on the global coastal ocean. New advances that make a science-focused programme such as CoastPredict urgent and achievable are: a) operational oceanography is now implemented from the global to the regional scales, making available open and free data for coastal downscaling; and b) major technology advancements have taken place in observing, from satellites to in-situ robotics to the use of Artificial Intelligence, which makes the monitoring of the coastal ocean practical and feasible. CoastPredict will capitalise on this game-changing operational oceanography framework and extend to coastal predictive capabilities, including the land-water cycle (rivers, underground and transitional waters) and, for the first time, integrating the coastal ocean, through estuaries and rivers, with the “urban ocean” (waters within and around coastal cities).

CoastPredict will be implemented through several projects focusing on 6 areas:

  • Focus Area 1 - Integrated Observing and Modelling for short term coastal forecasting and early warnings. This area will contribute to Ocean Decade Challenge 6 ‘Increase community resilience to ocean hazards’: enhance multi-hazard early warning services for all geophysical, ecological, biological, weather, climate and anthropogenic related ocean and coastal hazards, and mainstream community preparedness and resilience (🔗17).
  • Focus Area 2 - Future Coastal Ocean climates: Earth system observing and modelling. This area will contribute to Challenge 5 ‘Unlock ocean-based solutions to climate change’: enhance understanding of the ocean-climate nexus and generate knowledge and solutions to mitigate, adapt and build resilience to the effects of climate change across all geographies and at all scales, and to improve services including predictions for the ocean, climate and weather.
  • Focus Area 3 - Solutions for Integrated Coastal Management. This area will contribute to Challenge 8 ‘Create a digital representation of the Ocean’: through multi-stakeholder collaboration, develop a comprehensive digital representation of the ocean, including a dynamic ocean map, which provides free and open access for exploring, discovering, and visualising past, current, and future ocean conditions in a manner relevant to diverse stakeholders.
  • Focus area 4 - Coastal Ocean and Human Health. This area does not match with a specific Decade Challenge but it is cross-cutting to all the 10 Challenges.
  • Focus Area 5 - Coastal Information integrated in the open and free exchange international infrastructure. This area will contribute to Challenge 7 ‘Expand the Global Ocean Observing System’: ensure a sustainable ocean observing system across all ocean basins that delivers accessible, timely, and actionable data and information to all users.
  • Focus Area 6 - Equitable coastal ocean capacity. This area will contribute to Challenge 9 ‘Skills, knowledge and technology for all’: ensure comprehensive capacity development and equitable access to data, information, knowledge and technology across all aspects of ocean science and for all stakeholders.

12.11.3 ForeSea Program

ForeSea is hosted by OceanPredict (🔗18), a science programme for the coordination and improvement of global and regional ocean analysis and forecasting systems. ForeSea aims to build the next generation of ocean predictions pursuing a strong coordination of the scientific community and institutes at the international level (🔗19). Its main goals are:

  • To improve the science, efficiency, use, and impact of ocean prediction systems;
  • To build a seamless ocean information value chain, from observations to end users, able to support the economy and society.

ForeSea 🔗20 focuses on 2 main themes:

1. Catalysing transformative ocean prediction science solutions for sustainable development, connecting people and ocean prediction;
2. Increasing impact and relevance: improving science and science capacity for the ocean we want.

Such themes are developed through a number of items. In theme 1 they span from integrating forecasts of ocean hazards with socioeconomic forecasts for supporting policy and management to maximisation of the impact and value of observations, from capacity building and training to contribution to a digital ocean. In theme 2, they cover from usage of advanced ocean prediction technologies in weather and climate predictions to coupled systems (in partnership with CoastPredict), from usage of Earth system models (ESM) to development of limited ESM areas with coupled components to improve model predictability (in collaboration with CoastPredict).

Expected outcomes 🔗21 are considerable as ForeSea should contribute to:

  • An operational oceanography information value-chain where verified/certified information and knowledge are exchanged freely enabling all operational oceanographic components, integrated from the open ocean to the coastal areas, to effectively synergize;
  • A continuously optimised ocean observing system integrated from the open ocean to the coastal areas that provides maximum information benefit with manageable cost; An ocean information delivery system that provides the right information at the right time for facilitating marine decisions in support of human safety and environmental safety, and an efficient and sustainable blue economy;
  • Improved extended range forecasting capabilities for ocean prediction systems;
  • Better assessment and prediction of the ocean state (including reliable uncertainty estimates) and ocean impact on forecasts of other earth system components (e.g. atmosphere, ice, waves, marine ecosystems, estuaries, etc.); 
  • An informed ocean literate society and global economy;
  • Coordinated capacity building across all elements of the operational oceanography value chain to sustain production and delivery of ocean prediction;
  • Demonstrated impact and value of predictions for coastal communities;
  • Effective use of ocean prediction technologies for weather and climate predictions.

To facilitate realisation of the expected outcomes, ForeSea established through OceanPredict connections with GOOS, WMO, IOC, JCOMM, Argo, GHRSST, GEO, and GEO BluePlanet.

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Chapter 12

Challenges and future perspectives in ocean prediction

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