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Chapter 12

Challenges and future perspectives in ocean prediction

CHAPTER
COORDINATORS
Fraser Davidson
CHAPTER
AUTHORS
Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Alain Arnaud, Stefania Ciliberti, Marie Drevillon, Ronan Fablet, Yosuke Fujii, Isabel Garcia-Hermosa, Stéphanie Guinehut, Emma Heslop, Villy Kourafalou, Julien Le Sommer, Matt Martin, Andrew M. Moore, Nadia Pinardi, Elizabeth Remy, Paul Sandery, Jun She, Marcos G. Sotillo, and Joaquin Tintorè

12.1 Introduction

The growth of ocean prediction research, capability, applicability, availability, maturity, and user uptake from an initial idea 25 years ago, while gradual, has been unrelenting. Today’s capacity and maturity in ocean prediction goes beyond what was initially conceived and provides a strong basis for advancement of societal benefits. Over the next 10 years, ocean prediction systems will continue to gradually rival weather prediction systems in the sense of ubiquitous use, protecting lives, economic impact, and supporting custodianship of the environment. Building a framework with standards and best practices for the full operational oceanography value chain will enable further harnessing of prediction systems in supporting a healthy ocean at the same time of a blue economic growth for all countries. This will further awareness and accessibility of the marine environment through digital platforms underpinning increases in ocean prediction literacy, capacity building, applications, and services (Figure 4.1).

Herein we outline the expected advances of ocean prediction and other supporting components of operational oceanography over the next decade. An underlying theme is the integration of ocean prediction systems within the larger context of operational oceanography, seamless environmental prediction, and the blue economy. This requires a transparent framework approach of standards and best practices, enabling all countries, particularly those with the least resources, to engage and benefit.

This chapter introduces the key drivers for the next generation of OOFS, spanning from global to coastal scale observing systems (Section 12.2) to numerical models evolution (Section 12.3), data assimilation (Section 12.4) and ensemble systems for prediction (Section 12.5), from the growing AI techniques for understanding physical processes (Section 12.6) to seamless approach (Section 12.7) and DTO (Section 12.8), including as well the evolution in quality assessment (Section 12.9). The last sections focus on planned evolution for state-of-the-art services like the Copernicus Marine Service (Section 12.10) and international initiatives promoted by the UN Decade of the Ocean (Section 12.11).

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