Weekly Marine Heat Wave Forecast Products by NMEFC for the Coastal Region of China
CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR AND COUNTRY: Zhijie Li, Liying Wang and Dakui Wang, China
Maximum intensity of marine heat wave found in Bohai Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea
Categories of marine heat wave gained based on the degree to which temperatures exceed the local climatology (Hobday, et al, 2018). (Ⅰ for Moderate, Ⅱ for strong, Ⅲ for severe, Ⅳ for extreme)
In recent decades, marine heat wave events have become more frequent and more intense around the world and the severe ones can have devastating effects on the marine environment, marine ecology, and marine fisheries. In 2018, an extreme marine heat wave event in the Bohai Sea of China caused direct economic losses of 6.8 billion yuan (RMB) in sea cucumber farming. The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC） officially releases the weekly marine heat wave forecast products for the coastal region of China from January 1, 2024, with the elements including the maximum intensity and categories.
In order to better prevent and respond to marine heat wave disasters, NMEFC of China has launched research on the monitoring and forecasting technology of marine heat waves in the coastal region of China starting in 2022. The research used the sea surface temperature (SST) data observed by Chinese coastal stations to test and compare a variety of SST fusion data, such as Operational SST and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA), Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST), and Merged Satellite and In situ Data Global Daily SST (MGDSST), and finally selected OSTIA SST to analyse the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and changing trends of key indicators such as frequency, average intensity, duration and total days of marine heat waves in the coastal region of China over the past 40 years; discussed the driving mechanism of marine heat wave from the aspects of atmospheric forcing, local circulation, large-scale climate system mode, and topography; developed and evaluated operational weekly forecast products of heat wave intensity and category elements based on the intelligent grid SST forecast products.
The weekly forecast products passed expert review at the end of 2023 and were officially released on January 1, 2024, which can provide auxiliary decision-making support for China's marine disaster prevention and reduction and sustainable development of the marine economy.
USEFUL LINKS:
https://www.nmefc.cn/newsDetail?infoId=953ba25e04214762aecfd2fa8c6a60c6&name=%E4%B8%AD%E5%BF%83%E6%96%B0%E9%97%BB
ORGANIZATION OF THE CONTRIBUTING AUTHOR :
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center
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